从出租车到网约车的乘客出行方式选择行为演化博弈分析
Evolutionary Game Analysis on Travel Mode Selecting Behavior of Passengers from Taxi to Ridesharing

基于演化博弈理论,从出行效用和出行成本两个维度对出行收益进行解构,将乘客出行方式选择行为的演化划分为供需匹配方式选择和运营模式选择两个阶段。在第一阶段,乘客以"又快又准"作为决策标准,路边招手被网络预约替代是唯一演化稳定解。在第二阶段,乘客以"省时省钱"作为决策标准,演化趋势主要受供给量和价格水平的影响,出租车和网约车可实现共存共生。最后提出,出租汽车行业治理应实行双轨制,将市场竞争机制和政府监管相结合,以促进行业的改革升级和长期稳定发展。

Based on evolutionary game theory, the travel profit of passengers is divided into two dimensions: travel utility and travel cost. The evolution of travel mode selection behavior can be divided into two stages: supply and demand matching mode selection and operation mode selection. In the first stage, passengers use fast and accurate as the decision-making standard, and the roadside beckoning is replaced by APP is the only evolutionary solution. In the second stage, passengers use saving time and money as the decision-making standard. The evolution trend is mainly affected by the supply quantity and price level.Therefore, taxi and network vehicles can achieve coexistence and symbiosis. The taxi industry governance should implement a two-track system, combining market competition mechanism and government supervision to promote the reform and upgrading of the industry and long-term stable development.

中国石油大学(华东)中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(27R1606047B);

出行效用; 出行成本; 出租车; 网约车; 演化博弈;

travel utility; travel cost; cruising taxi service; peer-to-peer ridesharing; evolutionary game;

10.13956/j.ss.1001-8409.2019.08.22

F572;F724.6

软科学

Soft Science

2019year08issue

ISSN:1001-8409

Core Journals of China

899126-13271167K