Online Publishing Date:2019-03-21 16:00

“一带一路”倡议与中国企业升级
The Belt and Road Initiative and the Upgrading of China’s Enterprises

近年来,中国应该如何实现产业升级受到学界的广泛关注,产业升级归根结底是产业内代表性企业是否实现优化升级,"一带一路"倡议在中国经济进入新常态的背景下提出,其对中国企业升级的影响具有重要的意义。本文以"一带一路"倡议提出的准自然实验为切入点,利用双重差分法考察"一带一路"倡议对中国企业升级的影响及作用路径。研究发现,"一带一路"倡议可以显著地助推中国以全要素生产率提高为表征的企业升级,当利用工具变量法缓解可能存在的内生性问题及进行其他稳健性检验之后,上述结论依然稳健;进一步地,本文基于产业生命周期理论将中国产业分为新兴产业、成熟产业和瓶颈产业,并从研发创新视角分析"一带一路"倡议影响各产业中企业升级的作用路径,结合实证检验发现:"一带一路"倡议可以通过研发创新助推中国企业升级,且对瓶颈产业的企业升级影响最大,其次为新兴产业和成熟产业;此外,本文还根据产权性质进行分样本回归,结果显示,"一带一路"倡议可以同时助推国有企业和民营企业升级,这一结论意味着,在"一带一路"倡议稳步推进的过程中,中国经济发展形成了"国进民进"的新格局。本文不仅为"一带一路"倡议影响企业升级提供了微观证据,而且对于国家制定政策有重要的理论启示,对"一带一路"倡议的后续部署具有一定参考价值。

In recent years, how China should achieve industrial upgrading has received extensive attention from academic circles. In the final analysis, industrial upgrading is whether the representative enterprises in the industry have achieved optimization and upgrading. The Belt and Road Initiative is proposed in the context of China’s economy entering the new normal, it has important research significance for the impact of China’s enterprise upgrading. The paper takes the quasi-natural experiment formed by the Belt and Road Initiative as the entry point, uses the DID model and studies the impact and path of the Belt and Road Initiative on the upgrading of China’s enterprises. The study found that the Belt and Road Initiative can significantly promote the upgrading of China’s enterprises characterized by improving total factor productivity. The above conclusions remain robust after using the instrumental variable approach to mitigate possible endogenous problems and perform other robustness tests; Further, the paper divides China’s industries into emerging industries, mature industries and bottleneck industries based on the industry life cycle theory, and analyzes the path of the Belt and Road Initiative affecting the upgrading of enterprises in various industries from the perspective of innovation. Combined with empirical analysis, the following results are obtained: The Belt and Road Initiative can promote the upgrading of enterprises in all industries through innovation, and has the greatest impact on the upgrading of enterprises in bottleneck industries, followed by emerging industries and mature industries. In addition, the paper also conducts a subsample regression based on the nature of property rights. The results show that the Belt and Road Initiative can simultaneously promote the upgrading of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises. This conclusion means that in the process of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s economic development has formed a new pattern of "State Advance and Private Advance". The paper not only provides micro evidence for studying the Belt and Road Initiative affecting the upgrading of enterprises, but also has important theoretical enlightenment for the country to formulate policies, and has certain reference value for the follow-up deployment of the Belt and Road Initiative.

教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“推进21世纪海上丝绸之路建设研究”(批准号15JZD038); 国家自然科学基金地区项目“中国的选择性产业政策有效吗:一个技术创新绩效视角的经验研究”(批准号71764002);

“一带一路”倡议; 企业升级; 创新; 全要素生产率;

the Belt and Road Initiative; the upgrading of enterprises; innovation; total factor productivity;

10.19581/j.cnki.ciejournal.2019.03.013

F279.2;F125

中国工业经济

China Industrial Economics

2019year03issue

ISSN:1006-480X

Core Journals of China

344143-6119966K